Thom Tillis

Modeled Data & Analysis for North Carolina GOP

The brief

CA Political was contracted to provide modeled data and data analysis on partisanship, turnout, issue importance, and personality profile for North Carolina GOP in the race between Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan.


Timescale

The 2014 mid-term elections.


Our work
Harnessing our unique data-rich voter file, we were able to accurately predict partisanship, turnout, issue importance and build psychographic profiles for all voters in North Carolina. We produced clusters of voters based on the modeled data to maximize campaign impact, which enabled the creation of tailored messages directed at those audiences.

Following extensive analysis of registered voters early in the race, we identified national security as the top issue among the majority of target voters in North Carolina. Targeting these groups, and capitalizing on Kay Hagan’s poor attendance at Armed Services Committee hearings, we were able to design and deploy messages tailored to these audiences according to their particular psychographic profiles. This was done through a telecanvassing program and a large scale direct mail campaign that demonstrably increased their likelihood of voting, and voting Republican.


Turnout uplift NC call program
 

Diagram 1



Our telecanvassing program contacted 123,138 individuals, resulting in an increase in turnout of 12.57% among those called, which is equivalent to over 15,478 voters.


Result
CA Political worked successfully with various organizations key to the success of Thom Tillis’ campaign. Thom Tillis won against Kay Hagan by two points, despite Nate Silver and the Washington Post predicting otherwise.